Unlike previous years, when emerging trends unfolded on an unofficial level, in 2025, momentous events—war, an assassination, a papal election and a presidential reelection—will likely shape religious developments in the next year and beyond. Here are the editors’ selections of trends to watch out for in 2026. After each item, we cite the pertinent issues of RW, as well as other publications, that have reported on these events and trends.
1) Perhaps the most significant institutional change in global religion this year was the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost on May 8, 2025, as Pope Leo XIV—the first American pope in the history of the Catholic Church. His choice of the name Leo signals a foundational commitment to the social justice aims of Leo XIII (1878–1903), whose encyclical on labor justice launched the modern Catholic social tradition. The new pope’s first magisterial document, the apostolic exhortation Dilexi te (“I have loved you”), preaches the love of Christ as incarnated in love for the poor, caring for the sick, defending women who experience exclusion and violence, making education available to all, and accompanying migrants. The document continues themes from Pope Francis’s final encyclical Dilexit nos. In relation to his predecessor, Leo XIV seems to be on a line between continuity and pacification, although one has to wait for major decisions in order to start understanding fully the guiding principles of his pontificate and his way of implementing them. A recent report from the “Study Commission on the Female Diaconate” rejecting the diaconate for women is said to have closed the door on women’s ordination of any kind, suggesting that Pope Leo doesn’t fit the progressive mold either (although the commission was first organized by Pope Francis). (May RW; First Things, December 10)
2) The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president has not turned out to be “more of the same” regarding matters of politics and religion. The “Christian nationalist” label was—and still is—used indiscriminately since Trump’s first term in office, but this time there really are political and religious leaders inspired by a Christian nationalist vision. What such a vision entails is not always clear, with standard Christian-right positions (such as on pro-life issues) either downplayed or dismissed by this administration. But judging from the discourse of those in and close to the administration, such as the National Conservative movement, there is a concerted effort to revive talk of a Christian heritage and tone down references to religious pluralism. It is more difficult translating this discourse into policy, though we see some clear ramifications of the administration’s vision as a whole in the way faith-based refugee and social service organizations have faced cuts and reductions from the federal government. The elevation and assertion of the “Muslim question,” casting doubt on the place of Islam in America’s religious tapestry, may be an important area where the Christian nationalist element will gain some traction. Already there is serious talk about “remigrating” Muslims, not to mention restricting Muslim immigrants (and there are even some conservative Christian protests against public expression of Hinduism). Such policy changes can receive ideological support from the anti-Islamic sentiments that have become prominent in evangelical circles since 9/11. (September, October, November RW)
3) For all the talk of Christian nationalism over the past decade [see above], the place of religion in Republican politics had been waning—at least until the assassination of Charlie Kirk last September. The grief and fervor surrounding Kirk’s death reenergized the religious element both in the party and also for many Americans on a personal level. The unique blend of religion and politics on display in Turning Point USA (both before and after Kirk’s death) is a different kind of religious upsurge from recent decades, but it is typically American in the way it draws on deep wells of patriotism and spirituality. Whether it is a revival is an open question, but the stabilizing of religious affiliation in the U.S. and reports of renewed spiritual interest in Europe, especially among young men, suggests the Kirk phenomenon is part of something larger than American political dynamics. (September RW)
4) While the U.S. government has shown a longtime concern about religious persecution (especially persecution of Christians) around the world, the Trump administration has upped the ante, adding military strikes to exercising soft power. This could be seen in Trump’s strikes in Nigeria against groups connected to the Islamic State on Christmas day. India, Nicaragua and various other places will likely be feeling increasing heat about their treatment of Christians.
5) The redrawing of the map of global Anglicanism seems to be closer than ever at the end of 2025. The response of the Global Anglican Future Conference (GAFCON) to the appointment of Dame Sarah Mullally as the new Archbishop of Canterbury on October 3, 2025, appears to have formalized a long-simmering divide between conservative and progressive factions of the Anglican Communion. GAFCON’s Primates’ Council dismissed the Archbishop of Canterbury as an “Instrument of Communion” and stated that they are no longer willing to participate in the Lambeth Conference, the Anglican Consultative Council (ACC), and the Primates’ Meeting, criticizing them for having failed to uphold Anglican doctrine. As Zenit Catholic news agency noted, “the decision underscores a broader realignment within global Christianity, in which demographic growth and theological authority are migrating toward the Global South. For many observers, the move echoes tensions long visible in other Christian traditions—the struggle to balance cultural adaptation with doctrinal fidelity.” (Zenit, October 20)
6) The year 2025 marked the 1,700th anniversary of the First Council of Nicaea (325 AD), which became an occasion for significant ecumenical engagement. In November, Pope Leo XIV traveled to Iznik (ancient Nicaea) in Turkey to celebrate an ecumenical prayer meeting with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople and around 20 church leaders from Christian communities around the world. The previous month, in Egypt, the Coptic Orthodox Church hosted the Sixth World Conference on Faith and Order (October 24–28). This World Council of Churches (WCC) gathering produced the “Ecumenical Affirmation of Wadi El Natrun.” This document called for “visible unity” in the face of global polarization.
7) The religiopolitical changes in the Middle East, with the weakening of Iran and the post-Assad transition in Syria, will likely have repercussions in 2026 and beyond. In the case of Iran, the power of the clergy, long in decline, showed itself as largely ineffectual in unifying and rallying the country during and after the short war with Israel and the U.S. The country has experienced a rapid secularization over the years, with women and young people in particular growing disenchanted with the ruling clergy and its theocratic government. In considering what might come after the elderly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leaves the scene, analyst Karim Sadjadpour writes that even if another hardliner is chosen as its leader, Iran has had a five-decade experiment resulting in theocratic mismanagement. “If Iran’s next age belongs to another strongman, he is unlikely to wear a turban.” (May RW; Foreign Affairs, November/December)
