The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has left behind a fractured country and an increasingly divisive politics that raises new concerns about the safety of Christians and also the Alawite minority, the heterodox branch of Shia Islam espoused by the Assad family, according to two reports. In The Dispatch (March 16), Michael Reneau, Joseph Roche, and Iryna Matviyishyn note that reports surfaced in March of violent crackdowns by Syria’s new Islamist rulers in the Alawite region of Latakia, resulting in over 1,000 deaths, including 745 civilians. Although most of the victims were Alawites, Christians were also reportedly caught in the violence. The attacks have intensified fears among Syria’s Christian communities, prompting mass evacuations and raising concerns about their safety under the new regime. Yet the article notes that “many of Syria’s Christians seem intent on finding ways to bind the wounds of Syria’s diverse communities of religions and people groups—so long…fractured by decades of tyranny.” Catholic priest Tony Homsy said his greatest concern was about the Alawites. Many Sunni Muslims want revenge against the Alawites, whom they, rightly or wrongly, associate with Assad’s regime. The clerics interviewed support reconciliation and unity between the sectarian groups and parties, yet they expressed concern about escalating chaos in the country and that a threat against Christians could emerge.
While the ruling Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization has attempted to rebrand itself as a local Syrian force with governance ambitions, “it remains designated as a terrorist organization by the European Union and the United States due to its extremist origins and activities. Controlling parts of Idlib province, the group enforces a strict interpretation of Islamic law, fueling concerns among religious minorities, including Syria’s Christians,” write Reneau, Roche, and Matviyishyn. An analysis by Samer Sleaby in The European Conservative magazine (March 12) sees two futures for Syria’s Christians and other minorities: federalism or emigration. The growing discourse about federalism is the result of the ruling authority’s failure to create a national dialogue among the different groups and ensure that the HTS doesn’t resort to violence. Historically, Syria has moved between various forms of federated states and centralized rule. “Today,” Sleaby writes, “the idea of federalism is most strongly advocated by politically organized groups such as the Kurds, whereas other communities—like the Druze and Alawites—are still in the process of structuring their political visions. However, the federalist debate has been largely absent among Syrian Christians, aside from a few recent, tentative efforts.”
The Syriac community, divided largely between Orthodox and Catholics, is also split politically, with the Syriac Union Party supporting federalism, and the Assyrian Democratic Organization against it. While Christians are now more inclined toward federalism than in the past, there are significant differences, often according to social class. Urban Christians tend to desire to remain integrated within their broader communities, while on the coasts and in southern Syria, Christians are more inclined toward federalism. This is mainly due to the Druze community’s relatively successful autonomy under the previous regime, fostering the belief that such an arrangement might also give Christians greater religious and social liberties. Sleaby adds that Syrian Christians share common ground with federalist movements in Lebanon, but the former’s demographic dispersion and lack of political organization puts them at a disadvantage. Syrian Christians in the diaspora—who make up a significant portion of the community—are also divided on the issue, while church officials “remain ambiguous across different denominations. Church leaders are treading cautiously, reassessing their relationship with the new authorities and their role within their communities in a post-Ba’athist Syria,” Sleaby writes. At the same time, a sizable segment of the Christian population views emigration as the only viable solution, the article concludes.
(The Dispatch, https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-faith/between-fear-and-reconciliation-in-syria; European Conservative, https://europeanconservative.com/articles/analysis/could-federalism-solve-syrias-religious-and-ethnic-hostilities/)
